Saturday, August 18, 2012

The Charts Every Voter Should Understand



In early 2009, arguing for the $900+Billion stimulus, the Obama administration published its forecast.  The light blue line was the forecast of unemployment if the stimulus bill failed.  The dark blue line predicted the unemployment rate if it passed.  The red dots are actual unemployment figures.
If discouraged workers (who are not counted in unemployment figures) stayed in the work force, our reported unemployment would be 11%.
(The first "Q1" on the left is first quarter, 2007)
Now this one is a little more complicated, but shows a bigger picture, combining population figures with unemployment and participation in the work force.  The recession was bad--the "recovery" even worse because the unemployment rate is going down because the number of people staying in the work force is dropping:

The result is that the unemployment rate looks like it's going down, but the number of people who actually hold jobs is lower.


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